The Economic Consequences of R = 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics

24 Pages Posted: 20 Aug 2020 Last revised: 10 Jan 2022

See all articles by Joshua S. Gans

Joshua S. Gans

University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management; NBER

Date Written: January 9, 2022

Abstract

This paper reviews the literature on incorporating behavioural elements into epidemiological models of pandemics. While modelling behaviour by forward-looking rational agents can provide some insight into the time paths of pandemics, the non-stationary nature of Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) models of viral spread makes characterisation of resulting equilibria difficult. Here I posit a shortcut that can be deployed to allow for a tractable equilibrium model of pandemics with intuitive comparative statics and also a clear prediction that effective reproduction numbers (that is, R) will tend towards 1 in equilibrium. This motivates taking R = 1 as an equilibrium starting point for analyses of pandemics with behavioural agents. The implications of this for the analysis of widespread testing, tracing, isolation and mask-use is discussed.

Note: Funding: None.

Conflict of Interest: NO conflicts of interests or financial interests.

Keywords: COVID-19, epidemiology, SIR model, pandemics

JEL Classification: I12, I18

Suggested Citation

Gans, Joshua S., The Economic Consequences of R = 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics (January 9, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3662452 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3662452

Joshua S. Gans (Contact Author)

University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management ( email )

Canada

HOME PAGE: http://www.joshuagans.com

NBER ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
65
Abstract Views
758
Rank
618,039
PlumX Metrics