Climate Transition Risk in New Zealand Equities

Abstract

We examine climate transition risk in New Zealand (NZ) equities given that NZ’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are dominated by agricultural emissions and that carbon pricing has been in place since 2008. Only around half of NZX50 companies disclose emissions and that disclosure is driven by, inter alia, size and profitability. In terms of ‘hypothetical carbon liabilities’, Air New Zealand and Contact Energy are most exposed for Scope 1 and 2 emissions, but when upstream scope 3 GHG emissions are added, Fonterra (multinational dairy firm) is most at-risk. An asset pricing analysis shows that only volatility and extreme price movements in carbon price returns are priced. Overall, the results suggest that despite there being material climate transition risks for NZX50 equities, limited disclosure and low carbon prices mean that these risks are not likely to be fully priced in stock values.

Keywords: Climate Finance; Carbon Markets; Asset Pricing; Investment Analysis; Transition Risk; Greenhouse Gas Emissions; Corporate Disclosures

JEL Classification: G11, G12; Q51; Q52; Q54; Q58