Uncovering Bias in Order Assignment

37 Pages Posted: 6 Oct 2020 Last revised: 28 Sep 2021

See all articles by Darren P. Grant

Darren P. Grant

Sam Houston State University - College of Business Administration - Department of Economics and International Business

Date Written: September 22, 2020

Abstract

To mitigate sequencing effects in decision-making, which are widespread, many real-life situations require a set of items to be considered in a random order. When such orderings are repeated, one can test whether randomization indeed obtains, or whether some individuals manipulate them in order to achieve a favorable result. However, the literature offers limited guidance on how to conduct these tests. This paper articulates the key features of this problem and presents three general tests that require no a priori information from the analyst. These methods are used to analyze the order in which lottery numbers are drawn in Powerball, the order in which contestants perform on American Idol, and the order of candidates on primary election ballots in Texas and West Virginia. In this last application, multiple deviations from full randomization are detected, with potentially serious political and legal consequences.

Keywords: ordering; sequencing; hypothesis testing; randomization; ballot order

JEL Classification: C12, D91

Suggested Citation

Grant, Darren P., Uncovering Bias in Order Assignment (September 22, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3697584 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3697584

Darren P. Grant (Contact Author)

Sam Houston State University - College of Business Administration - Department of Economics and International Business ( email )

SHSU Box 2118
Huntsville, TX 77341-2118
United States
936-294-4324 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.shsu.edu/dpg006

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