Estimation of Final Standings in Football Competitions with Premature Ending: The Case of COVID-19

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2020-070/III

23 Pages Posted: 14 Oct 2020 Last revised: 15 Oct 2020

See all articles by Paolo Gorgi

Paolo Gorgi

University of Padua; VU University Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration

Siem Jan Koopman

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics; Tinbergen Institute; Aarhus University - CREATES

Rutger Lit

VU University Amsterdam

Date Written: October 5, 2020

Abstract

We study an alternative approach to determine the final league table in football competitions with a premature ending. For several countries, a premature ending of the 2019/2020 football season has occurred due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a model-based method as a possible alternative to the use of the incomplete standings to determine the final table. This method measures the performance of the teams in the matches of the season that have been played and predicts the remaining non-played matches through a paired-comparison model. The main advantage of the method compared to the incomplete standings is that it takes account of the bias in the performance measure due to the schedule of the matches in a season. Therefore, the resulting ranking of the teams based on our proposed method can be regarded as more fair in this respect. A forecasting study based on historical data of seven of the main European competitions is used to validate the method. The empirical results suggest that the model-based approach produces more accurate predictions of the true final standings than those based on the incomplete standings.

Keywords: Bivariate Poisson, COVID-19, paired-comparison models, sport statistics

JEL Classification: C32

Suggested Citation

Gorgi, Paolo and Gorgi, Paolo and Koopman, Siem Jan and Lit, Rutger, Estimation of Final Standings in Football Competitions with Premature Ending: The Case of COVID-19 (October 5, 2020). Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper 2020-070/III, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3710785 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3710785

Paolo Gorgi (Contact Author)

VU University Amsterdam - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
Amsterdam, 1081HV
Netherlands

University of Padua ( email )

Via 8 Febbraio, 2
Padova, Vicenza 35122
Italy

Siem Jan Koopman

Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - School of Business and Economics ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
Amsterdam, 1081 HV
Netherlands
+31205986019 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://sjkoopman.net

Tinbergen Institute ( email )

Gustav Mahlerplein 117
1082 MS Amsterdam
Netherlands

HOME PAGE: http://personal.vu.nl/s.j.koopman

Aarhus University - CREATES ( email )

School of Economics and Management
Building 1322, Bartholins Alle 10
DK-8000 Aarhus C
Denmark

Rutger Lit

VU University Amsterdam ( email )

De Boelelaan 1105
Amsterdam, ND North Holland 1081 HV
Netherlands

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