Time, Ecology and Space in the Coronavirus Epidemic Diffusion in Italy

Abstract

This study analyses the secondary transmission mechanisms of the 2020 coronavirus epidemic in Italy, considering, simultaneously, the temporal, ecological and spatial correlates of such transmission. To do so, this paper has identified, firstly, the serial interval of the transmission, the premise for further analyses of epidemic diffusion. As for the ecological correlates, the present study, by using a large set of territorial characteristics, found that the main contribution to the epidemic diffusion came from the anthropologic context rather than the physical one. In particular, the epidemic diffusion was higher in the richer and more developed territorial units. As for spatial determinants, a broad set of spatial matrices were created and tested. With all these matrices, the existence emerged of a secondary transmission spatial spillover. Both contiguity and distance proved to be significant for this transmission. The spatial component, however, did not cancel the impact of the ecological correlates: the results obtained employing OLS and spatial regression models suggested the relevance of both, and particularly the significance of direct and indirect indicators of social interaction and mobility.

Note: Funding: No funding received for this paper.

Declaration of Interests: The author declares no conflict of interest.

Keywords: Coronavirus, Serial interval, Territorial features, Spatial analysis, Social interaction, Mobility