Facts and Physics of Climate Change - Since Records Really Began

Abstract

This poster presentation summarises the macro level knowledge science has gained regarding actual global climate variability over this interglacial period to date, and the known controls of this variability. Proven physics and historic pre-industrial observations are used to determine what of the change we now observe is natural, and what may be anthropogenic. In particular the predictions of UN IPCC models are compared for range and rate of change with the GISP2 ice core record, also the observations of pervasive 4pi satellite coverage since 1979, to better determine the extent of anthropogenic anomalies and the accuracy of modelers assumptions.

The control of Earth’s natural atmospheric Lapse Rate effect is also reviewed, also around the Solar system, as are the heat loss mechanisms from Earth that control its heat balance. This review uses well known NASA numbers, and Maxwell's early description of how the lapse rate forms, as taught in meteorology, the adiabatic convective equilibrium. The scale of the natural oceanic feedback control is compared to the relative effect of the natural and anthropogenic elements of the Greenhouse effect on the natural lapse rate to space.

The suggestion that CO2 levels need to be expensively and dramatically reduced to avert a predicted climate disaster is reviewed against the evidence from the natural World. Because reversing 200 years of hard won energy dependent economic development based on the predictions of models will have a very large and real negative effect on the GDP of the UK. The actual effectiveness of the policy solutions to the predictions of climate models is also assessed, using the energy science facts.

The question asked of physicists here is whether the deterministic science we can prove supports the atmospheric AGW effect claimed as both proven and due mainly to CO2. Because, if the observations don't match the theory, it's wrong - and the measures to prevent it unnecessary. Should the massively expensive disruption of our energy supply infra structure to remediate the claimed problem, made in the name of AGW, be supported by physicists and engineers who cvan only accept deterministic science based on proof of theory by repeatable observation? Should scientists rely on the observations of deterministic physics we can prove, or models programmed to scapegoat a trivial effect to support a political agenda, that the observations show to be wrong in fact? You decide.

Keywords: Climate change, ice core record, Atmospheric physics, lapse rate, GHE, GHG, Maxwell, thermodynamics

JEL Classification: F02, F18, F50, O14, O19, Q54, Q58