A Quantitative Analysis of Oklahoma Commutations Prior to Mcgirt v. Oklahoma

Abstract

In Oklahoma, incarceration rates represent near highest rates nationally. Which influences drive this statistic? Solely criminality? Perhaps political stonewalling? Commutation is a small, powerful procedural variable in criminal justice. In attempting to understand the flow of the commutation process, applicant demographics were analyzed using statistical techniques. The results bear out a strong correlation between recidivism and referral of recommendations for commutation to the governor. Parole board behaviors may underscore larger penological or criminological problems. Perhaps, through further studies such as this, there can begin alleviation of current and future problems in correctional and public policy, particularly as relates to adopting evidence-based approaches in commutation considerations in the post-McGirt era.

Keywords: commutation, recidivism, correlation, first-time offense, rehabilitation, Pearson's Correlation Coefficient, bivariate chi-square, contingency table, outliers Evidence-based approach