Hedging-Based Scoring Rules for Multiple-Choice Questions
56 Pages Posted: 4 Mar 2022 Last revised: 4 Oct 2023
Date Written: September 29, 2023
Abstract
This paper proposes two novel scoring rules for multiple-choice questions based on the test-takers’ propensity to hedge across possible answers. To examine these scoring rules, we randomly assign 2,986 participants in an IQ test into three conditions. In the control condition, participants choose one option, and receive one point for a correct response. In the treatment conditions, they can explicitly hedge by choosing k options: if the correct option is among the k chosen options, they receive 1/k point in the outcome-mixing treatment, and one point with probability 1/k in the probability-mixing treatment. We find that participants in both treatments hedge pervasively and score lower compared to those in the control. The observed differences depend on risk preferences of the participants. While scores in the three conditions exhibit similar psychometric quality, we observe a significant correlation between academic performance and IQ score measured in the probability-mixing condition, but not in the other two conditions. These observations contribute to the literature on the design of multiple-choice tests, preference for hedging, and the relationship between risk preferences and cognitive ability.
Keywords: convex preference, deliberate randomization, cognitive ability, multiple-choice test, experiment
JEL Classification: C91, D81
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation