Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of Covid-19 Transmission Rates in Europe

82 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2022

See all articles by Alexander Chudik

Alexander Chudik

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

M. Hashem Pesaran

University of Southern California - Department of Economics

Alessandro Rebucci

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); National University of Singapore (NUS) - Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER)

Date Written: February, 2022

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of COVID-19 transmission rates and explains their evolution for selected European countries since the start of the pandemic taking account of changes in voluntary and government-mandated social distancing, incentives to comply, vaccination and the emergence of new variants. Evidence based on panel data modeling indicates that the diversity of outcomes that we document may have resulted from the non-linear interaction of mandated and voluntary social distancing and the economic incentives that governments provided to support isolation. The importance of these factors declined over time, with vaccine uptake driving heterogeneity in country experiences in 2021. Our approach also allows us to identify the basic reproduction number, R0, which is precisely estimated around 5, which is much larger than the values in the range of 2.4 – 3.9 assumed in the extant literature.

Keywords: COVID-19, multiplication factor, under-reporting, social distancing, SIR model, stochastic network models, reproduction number, pandemics, vaccine

JEL Classification: C4, D0, E7, F60, I12

Suggested Citation

Chudik, Alexander and Pesaran, M. Hashem and Rebucci, Alessandro, Social Distancing, Vaccination and Evolution of Covid-19 Transmission Rates in Europe (February, 2022). Globalization Institute Working Paper No. 414, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4027248 or http://dx.doi.org/10.24149/gwp414r2

Alexander Chudik (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas ( email )

2200 North Pearl Street
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M. Hashem Pesaran

University of Southern California - Department of Economics ( email )

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Alessandro Rebucci

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://carey.jhu.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/alessandro-rebucci-phd

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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National University of Singapore (NUS) - Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER) ( email )

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Singapore

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