Estimation of Fractional Integration in the Presence of Data Noise

University of Aarhus, Economics Working Paper No. 2003-10

22 Pages Posted: 12 Aug 2003

See all articles by Niels Haldrup

Niels Haldrup

Aarhus University, School of Economics and Management; CREATES

Morten Ørregaard Nielsen

Aarhus University - Department of Economics and Business Economics

Date Written: July 18, 2003

Abstract

The paper presents a comparative study on the performance of commonly used estimators of the fractional order of integration when data is contaminated by noise. In particular, measurement errors, additive outliers, temporary change outliers, and structural change outliers are addressed. It occurs that when the sample size is not too large, as is frequently the case for macroeconomic data, then non-persistent noise will generally bias the estimators of the memory parameter downwards. On the other hand, relatively more persistent noise like temporary change outliers and structural changes can have the opposite effect and thus bias the fractional parameter upwards. Surprisingly, with respect to the relative performance of the various estimators, the parametric conditional maximum likelihood estimator with modelling of the short run dynamics clearly outperforms the semiparametric estimators in the presence of noise that is not too persistent.

Keywords: Fractional integration, long memory, outliers, measurement errors, structural change

JEL Classification: C2, C13, C22

Suggested Citation

Haldrup, Niels and Haldrup, Niels and Nielsen, Morten Orregaard, Estimation of Fractional Integration in the Presence of Data Noise (July 18, 2003). University of Aarhus, Economics Working Paper No. 2003-10, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=429182 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.429182

Niels Haldrup (Contact Author)

Aarhus University, School of Economics and Management ( email )

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Morten Orregaard Nielsen

Aarhus University - Department of Economics and Business Economics ( email )

Denmark