Business Cycles and Fertility Dynamics in the U.S.: A Vector-Autoregressive Model

32 Pages Posted: 29 Dec 2006 Last revised: 9 Mar 2022

See all articles by Naci H. Mocan

Naci H. Mocan

Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: November 1989

Abstract

Using recent developments in time-series econometrics, this paper investigates the behavior of fertility over the business cycle. The sex-specific unemployment rates, the divorce rate and the fertility rate are shown to be governed by stochastic trends. Furthermore, fertility is determined to be co-integrated with the divorce and unemployment rates. In the bivariate vector-autoregressions between fertility and unemployment, an increase in the female or male unemployment rates generate a decrease in fertility, which confirms the findings of previous time-series research concerning the procyclical behavior of fertility. However, when the models include the divorce rate and the proportion of young marriages as additional regressors, shocks to the unemployment rates bring about an increase in fertility, implying the countercyclicality of fertility.

Suggested Citation

Mocan, Naci H., Business Cycles and Fertility Dynamics in the U.S.: A Vector-Autoregressive Model (November 1989). NBER Working Paper No. w3177, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=467628

Naci H. Mocan (Contact Author)

Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge - Department of Economics ( email )

Department of economics
Baton Rouge, LA 70803-6308
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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