Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?

49 Pages Posted: 28 Jun 2004

See all articles by Karl Whelan

Karl Whelan

Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland - Economic Analysis and Research Department

Gerard O'Reilly

Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland

Date Written: April 2004

Abstract

This paper analyzes the stability over time of the econometric process for Euro-area inflation since 1970, focusing in particular on the behaviour of the so-called persistence parameter (the sum of the coefficients on the lagged dependent variables). Perhaps surprisingly, in light of the Lucas critique, our principal finding is that there appears to be relatively little instability in the parameters of the Euro-area inflation process. Full-sample estimates of the persistence parameter are generally close to one, and we fail to reject the hypothesis that this parameter has been stable over time. We discuss how these results provide some indirect evidence against rational expectations models with strong forward-looking elements, such as the New-Keynesian Phillips curve.

Keywords: Inflation persistence, Euro area, Lucas critique

JEL Classification: E31, E52

Suggested Citation

Whelan, Karl and O'Reilly, Gerard, Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time? (April 2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=532943 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.532943

Karl Whelan (Contact Author)

Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland - Economic Analysis and Research Department ( email )

Dame Street
P.O. Box 559
Dublin 2
Ireland

Gerard O'Reilly

Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland ( email )

P.O. 559 Dame Street
Dublin 2, D2
Ireland

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