Intragroup Subgroup Clustering, International Intervention, and Intergroup Interaction Patterning: Toward a Dynamical Model of Protracted Intergroup Conflict

Abstract

Scholars and practitioners working with enduring conflicts have long recognized the complex and dynamical natures and relationships of intragroup and intergroup processes in these settings. The multitude of factors interacting within and between these systems, and their tendency to change over time, largely contributes to their intractable natures. Unfortunately, the ability of conflict scholars to conduct research on such dynamic phenomena has been constrained by the atomistic, linear assumptions of traditional research models and methods. Recent advances in dynamical systems theory have provided a new set of tools for building computer simulations that allow us to model the dynamic patterns emerging over time in these situations. This paper presents one such model: A dynamical model of protracted intergroup conflict. Using data collected from Israeli and Palestinian communities during the current Intifada, we modeled the impact of conflict escalation and international intervention on intragroup subgroup attitude clustering and patterns of intergroup interactions. Next steps and refinements for the model are discussed.

Keywords: Protracted conflict, dynamical systems, complexity

JEL Classification: D74