Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and the Exchange Rates of Emerging Economies

38 Pages Posted: 2 Nov 2004 Last revised: 25 Aug 2022

See all articles by Maurice Obstfeld

Maurice Obstfeld

University of California, Berkeley; Peterson Institute for International Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research

Date Written: October 2004

Abstract

Among the developing countries of the world, those emerging markets that have sought some degree of integration into world finance are characterized by higher per capita incomes, higher long-run growth rates, and lower output and consumption volatility. These characteristics are more likely to be causes than effects of financial integration. The measurable gains from financial integration appear to be lower for emerging markets than for higher-income countries, and appear to have been limited by recent crises. One factor limiting the gains from financial integration is the difficulty emerging economies face in resolving the open-economy trilemma. Given their structural and institutional features, many emerging economies cannot live comfortably either with fixed or with freely floating exchange rates. Most recently, the exchange rates of several emerging countries display attempts at stabilization punctuated by high volatility in periods of market stress.

Suggested Citation

Obstfeld, Maurice, Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and the Exchange Rates of Emerging Economies (October 2004). NBER Working Paper No. w10849, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=614221

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