Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World's Demographic Transition

35 Pages Posted: 19 Nov 2004

See all articles by Hans Fehr

Hans Fehr

University of Würzburg - Institute of Economics and Social Sciences

Sabine Jokisch

Ulm University - Institute of Economics

Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Boston University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

Date Written: November 2004

Abstract

This study uses Fehr, Jokisch, and Kotlikoff's (2004a) dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of changes in fertility and mortality on the developed world's demographic transition. The model features three regions - the U.S., Japan, and the EU-15 - and incorporates age- and time-specific fertility and mortality rates, detailed fiscal institutions, and international capital mobility, subject to adjustment costs. Our simulations confirm the offsetting fiscal and economic consequences of both higher fertility and lower mortality rates. The simulations indicate very minor effects on the developed world's rather bleak baseline transition path from either major increases in fertility rates or major reductions in mortality rates.

Keywords: demographic transition, computable general equilibrium model (CGE), fertility, mortality

JEL Classification: D58, H55, J11

Suggested Citation

Fehr, Hans and Jokisch, Sabine and Kotlikoff, Laurence J., Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World's Demographic Transition (November 2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=622639 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.622639

Hans Fehr (Contact Author)

University of Würzburg - Institute of Economics and Social Sciences ( email )

Sanderring 2
D-97070 Wuerzburg
Germany
0931- 31 29 72 (Phone)
0931- 888 71 29 (Fax)

Sabine Jokisch

Ulm University - Institute of Economics ( email )

Helmholtzstrasse 18
D-89081 Ulm
Germany

Laurence J. Kotlikoff

Boston University - Department of Economics ( email )

270 Bay State Road
Boston, MA 02215
United States
617-353-4002 (Phone)
617-353-4449 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy

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