The Potential Demand for and Strategic Use of an Hiv-1 Vaccine in Southern India

25 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Shreelata Rao Seshadri

Shreelata Rao Seshadri

Independent

P. Subramaniyam

Independent

Prabhat Jha

University of Toronto - Saint Michael's Hospital; University of Toronto - Centre for Global Health Research

Date Written: May 21, 2003

Abstract

Even a modestly effective HIV-1 vaccine would be highly useful in India and could avoid millions of deaths. How should such a vaccine be introduced? Based on evidence of adoption of other vaccines in India, current levels of spending on them and coverage of prevention programs targeting both high- and low-risk groups, Seshadri, Subramaniyam, and Jha assess the potential demand for and strategic use of an HIV-1 vaccine in the four southern Indian states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu. The authors also discuss potential strategies for delivery of the vaccine, prioritization for vaccination, and the political economy of such a vaccine in India. Assuming a vaccine cost of $10 a dose and including estimated delivery costs, the total cost of vaccinating 21.6 million adolescents 11-14 years of age and 1 percent of adults would be Rs. 12.25 billion (US$ 245 million). To maintain the vaccination rate in the 11-14 year old cohort, an additional 6.77 million in that age range would have to be vaccinated each year, at a vaccine cost of Rs. 3.39 billion (US$ 67.5 million).

An HIV-1 vaccine will greatly reduce HIV/AIDS in India, but it will not be a panacea. There will be a continued need for effective prevention programs to guard against behavior reversals or an imperfect vaccine. Key inputs for prevention, immunization, and treatment programs such as identification of various groups that could be immunized (vulnerable groups or general populations), strengthened surveillance, capacity building, operations research, and evaluation at local levels will continue to require intensive support.

This paper - a product of Public Services, Development Research Group - is part of the research project on The Economics of an HIV/AIDS Vaccine in Developing Countries: Potential Impact, Cost-Effectiveness, and Willingness to Pay, sponsored by the European Commission and the Development Research Group of the World Bank. The project was launched in response to recommendations of the World Bank's AIDS Vaccine Task Force.

Suggested Citation

Rao Seshadri, Shreelata and Subramaniyam, P. and Jha, Prabhat, The Potential Demand for and Strategic Use of an Hiv-1 Vaccine in Southern India (May 21, 2003). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=636428

P. Subramaniyam

Independent

Prabhat Jha

University of Toronto - Saint Michael's Hospital ( email )

Toronto
Canada

University of Toronto - Centre for Global Health Research ( email )

Toronto, Ontario M5B 1W8
Canada

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