Are Alcohol Excise Taxes Good for Us? Short and Long-Term Effects on Mortality Rates

22 Pages Posted: 15 Mar 2005 Last revised: 9 Dec 2022

See all articles by Philip J. Cook

Philip J. Cook

Duke University - Sanford School of Public Policy; Duke University, Dept. of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Jan Ostermann

Duke University - Center for Health Policy, Law and Management

Frank A. Sloan

Duke University - Center for Health Policy, Law and Management; Duke University, Fuqua School of Business-Economics Group; Duke University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: February 2005

Abstract

Regression results from a 30-year panel of the state-level data indicate that changes in alcohol-excise taxes cause a reduction in drinking and lower all-cause mortality in the short run. But those results do not fully capture the long-term mortality effects of a permanent change in drinking levels. In particular, since moderate drinking has a protective effect against heart disease in middle age, it is possible that a reduction in per capita drinking will result in some people drinking "too little" and dying sooner than they otherwise would. To explore that possibility, we simulate the effect of a one percent reduction in drinking on all-cause mortality for the age group 35-69, using several alternative assumptions about how the reduction is distributed across this population. We find that the long-term mortality effect of a one percent reduction in drinking is essentially nil.

Suggested Citation

Cook, Philip J. and Ostermann, Jan and Sloan, Frank A., Are Alcohol Excise Taxes Good for Us? Short and Long-Term Effects on Mortality Rates (February 2005). NBER Working Paper No. w11138, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=667181

Philip J. Cook (Contact Author)

Duke University - Sanford School of Public Policy ( email )

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Jan Ostermann

Duke University - Center for Health Policy, Law and Management ( email )

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Frank A. Sloan

Duke University - Center for Health Policy, Law and Management ( email )

Box 90253
Durham, NC 27708
United States
919-684-8047 (Phone)
919-684-6246 (Fax)

Duke University, Fuqua School of Business-Economics Group ( email )

Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708-0097
United States

Duke University - Department of Economics ( email )

213 Social Sciences Building
Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
United States