The Ordered Qualitative Model for Credit Rating Transitions

Les Cahiers du CREF of HEC Montréal Working Paper No. 04-05

56 Pages Posted: 18 Jul 2005

See all articles by Dingan Feng

Dingan Feng

York University - Department of Economics

Christian Gourieroux

University of Toronto - Department of Economics; Center for Interuniversity Research and Analysis on Organization (CIRANO); Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Economique (ENSAE); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Joann Jasiak

York University - Department of Economics

Date Written: December 2003

Abstract

The dynamic analysis of corporate credit ratings is needed for predicting the risk included in a credit portfolio at different horizons. In this paper, we present the estimation of an ordered probit model with factors for the migration probabilities, with its application to aggregate data regularly reported by Standard & Poor's.

Keywords: Credit rating, migration

JEL Classification: C23, C35, G11

Suggested Citation

Feng, Dingan and Gourieroux, Christian and Jasiak, Joann, The Ordered Qualitative Model for Credit Rating Transitions (December 2003). Les Cahiers du CREF of HEC Montréal Working Paper No. 04-05, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=757355 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.757355

Dingan Feng (Contact Author)

York University - Department of Economics ( email )

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Christian Gourieroux

University of Toronto - Department of Economics ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Joann Jasiak

York University - Department of Economics ( email )

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