Endogenous Fertility, Mortality and Economic Growth: Can a Malthusian Framework Account for the Conflicting Historical Trends in Population?

33 Pages Posted: 14 Jul 2006 Last revised: 3 Sep 2022

See all articles by Isaac Ehrlich

Isaac Ehrlich

State University of New York at Buffalo - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); University of Chicago - University of Chicago Press; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Jinyoung Kim

SUNY at Buffalo, College of Arts & Sciences, Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 2005

Abstract

The 19th century economist, Thomas Robert Malthus, hypothesized that the long-run supply of labor is completely elastic at a fixed wage-income level because population growth tends to outstrip real output growth. Dynamic equilibrium with constant income and population is achieved through equilibrating adjustments in "positive checks" (mortality, starvation) and "preventive checks" (marriage, fertility). Developing economies since the Industrial Revolution, and more recently especially Asian economies, have experienced steady income growth accompanied by sharply falling fertility and mortality rates. We develop a dynamic model of endogenous fertility, longevity, and human capital formation within a Malthusian framework that allows for diminishing returns to labor but also for the role of human capital as an engine of growth. Our model accounts for economic stagnation with high fertility and mortality and constant population and income, as predicted by Malthus, but also for takeoffs to a growth regime and a demographic transition toward low fertility and mortality rates, and a persistent growth in per-capita income.

Suggested Citation

Ehrlich, Isaac and Kim, Jinyoung, Endogenous Fertility, Mortality and Economic Growth: Can a Malthusian Framework Account for the Conflicting Historical Trends in Population? (September 2005). NBER Working Paper No. w11590, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=800445

Isaac Ehrlich (Contact Author)

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Jinyoung Kim

SUNY at Buffalo, College of Arts & Sciences, Department of Economics ( email )

Buffalo, NY 14260
United States
716-645-2121 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.economics.buffalo.edu/jinyoung%20kim.html

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