Optimal Filtering with Potential Output Uncertainty

39 Pages Posted: 14 Nov 2005

See all articles by James Yetman

James Yetman

Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

Date Written: November 11, 2005

Abstract

Existing papers studying optimal monetary policy when the central bank makes errors in measuring potential output typically treat those errors as exogenous to the model of the economy. Here we show that this is not an innocuous assumption, and can have important implications for optimal monetary policy. If measurement errors result from optimal filtering by the central bank, then they are a function of the shocks that hit the economy. Using a simple New Keynesian model that allows for analytical solutions to the optimal filtering problem, we show that a speed limit policy will be favored if the central bank places too much weight on recent data, and a price level target will be favored if the central bank places too little weight on recent data when estimating potential output.

Keywords: Price Level Targeting, Inflation Targeting, Speed Limit Policy, Uncertainty, Potential Output

JEL Classification: E52

Suggested Citation

Yetman, James, Optimal Filtering with Potential Output Uncertainty (November 11, 2005). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=845245 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.845245

James Yetman (Contact Author)

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) ( email )

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Basel, Basel-Stadt 4002
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