Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with an Application to Turkey

Rossi, Marco; Rebucci, Alessandro

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Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with an Application to Turkey

IMF Working Paper No. 04/208

14 Pages Posted: 9 Feb 2006

See all articles by Marco Rossi

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); National University of Singapore (NUS) - Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER)

Date Written: November 2004

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical measure of disinflation credibility and discusses its evolution in Turkey since the 2001 crisis. The results indicate that credibility has improved markedly over this period, boding well for the future of disinflation in Turkey.

Keywords: Bayesian Learning, Credibility, Disinflation, Mixing Estimation, Turkey

JEL Classification: C11, E58, F37

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Rossi, Marco and Rebucci, Alessandro, Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets: A Bayesian Approach with an Application to Turkey (November 2004). IMF Working Paper No. 04/208, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=879033