The Dog that Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability

33 Pages Posted: 6 Feb 2006

See all articles by John H. Cochrane

John H. Cochrane

Hoover Institution; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 30, 2006

Abstract

To question the statistical significance of return predictability, we cannot specify a null that simply turns off that predictability, leaving dividend growth predictability at its essentially zero sample value. If neither returns nor dividend growth are predictable, then the dividend-price ratio is a constant. If the null turns off return predictability, it must turn on the predictability of dividend growth, and then confront the evidence against such predictability in the data. I find that the absence of dividend growth predictability gives much stronger statistical evidence against the null, with roughly 1-2% probability values, than does the presence of return predictability, which only gives about 20% probability values. I argue that tests based on long-run return and dividend growth regressions provide the cleanest and most interpretable evidence on return predictability, again delivering about 1-2% probability values against the hypothesis that returns are unpredictable. I show that Goyal and Welch's (2005) finding of poor out-of-sample R² does not reject return forecastability. Out-of-sample R² is poor even if all dividend yield variation comes from time-varying expected returns.

Keywords: Return predictability, volatility

JEL Classification: G12, C53

Suggested Citation

Cochrane, John H., The Dog that Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability (January 30, 2006). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=879793 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.879793

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