Prediction of Acquisition Targets in the UK: A Multicriteria Approach

Abstract

This paper illustrates the use of a multicriteria decision aid technique for the development of a model for the prediction of acquisition targets. A sample of 76 UK firms acquired over the period 2000-2002 matched with 76 non-acquired firms is used to develop a model that discriminates between acquired and non-acquired firms. Back-testing results on the discriminating ability of the model for up to three years prior to acquisition are reported along with a comparison with model developed with other well-known classification techniques, namely discriminant analysis, logistic regression and artificial neural networks. The results indicate that the proposed multicriteria approach is well suited in predicting corporate acquisitions compared to other techniques.

Keywords: Acquisitions, Discrimination, Mergers, Multicriteria Decision Aid

JEL Classification: G34, C6