When Bioterrorism Was No Big Deal

99 Pages Posted: 20 Nov 2006 Last revised: 13 Jul 2022

See all articles by Patricia E. Beeson

Patricia E. Beeson

University of Pittsburgh - Office of the Provost

Werner Troesken

University of Pittsburgh - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: October 2006

Abstract

To better understand the potential economic repercussions of a bioterrorist attack, this paper explores the effects of several catastrophic epidemics that struck American cities between 1690 and 1880. The epidemics considered here killed between 10 and 25 percent of the urban population studied. A particular emphasis is placed on smallpox and yellow fever, both of which have been identified as potential bioterrorist agents. The central findings of the paper are threefold. First, severe localized epidemics did not disrupt, in any permanent way, the population level or long-term growth trajectory of those cities. Non-localized epidemics (i.e., those that struck more than one major city) do appear to have had some negative effect on population levels and long-term growth. There is also modest evidence that ill-advised responses to epidemics on the part of government officials might have had lasting and negative effects in a few cities. Second, severe localized epidemics did not disrupt trade flows; non-localized epidemics had adverse, though fleeting, effects on trade. Third, while severe epidemics probably imposed some modest costs on local and regional economies, these costs were very small relative to the national economy.

Suggested Citation

Beeson, Patricia E. and Troesken, Werner, When Bioterrorism Was No Big Deal (October 2006). NBER Working Paper No. w12636, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=938962

Patricia E. Beeson

University of Pittsburgh - Office of the Provost ( email )

Pittsburgh, PA 15260
United States

Werner Troesken (Contact Author)

University of Pittsburgh - Department of Economics ( email )

4901 Wesley Posvar Hall
230 South Bouquet Street
Pittsburgh, PA 15260
United States
412-648-7451 (Phone)
412-648-9074 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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