Capital Flows, Interest Rates and Precautionary Behaviour: A Model of Global Imbalances
WEFRP Working Paper No. WEF 0014
38 Pages Posted: 31 Oct 2006
Date Written: July 2006
Abstract
A dynamic stochastic model of global equilibrium, where countries outside the U.S. face higher risk than the U.S. itself, predicts current account surpluses in the RoW and U.S. deficits. With Loss Aversion, such precautionary savings can cause substantial 'global imbalances', particularly if there is an inefficient supply of global 'insurance'. In principle, lower real interest rates will ensure aggregate demand equals supply at a global level (though the required real interest may be negative). Low interest rates and high savings outside the U.S. appear to be an efficient global equilibrium: but is this sustainable? A precautionary savings glut appears to us to be a temporary phenomenon, destined for correction as and when adequate reserve levels are achieved. But if the process of correction is triggered by 'Sudden Stop' on capital flows to the U.S., might it not lead to the inefficient outcomes forecast by several leading macroeconomists? When precautionary saving is combines with financial panic, history offers no guarantee of full employment.
Keywords: stochastic dynamic general equilibrium, loss aversion, liquidity trap
JEL Classification: D51, D52, E12, E13, E21, E44, F32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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