Investor Rationality: An Analysis of Ncreif Commercial Property Data

Abstract

National Council of Real Estate Fiduciaries multiple listing service level cash flows and panels of capitalization rates for industrial, office and retail properties over the last two decades are examined in this study. Real NOI 5-year future growth is shown to be negatively related to deviations of current real NOI from trend. Given this trend reversion in real cash flows, investor rationality requires that income multipliers be low (capitalization rates be high) when real cash flows are above trend and visa versa. In the panel estimates, the opposite is seen to be the case. Whether this is due to questionable data or irrational behavior is uncertain.

Keywords: NCREIF, multiple listing service, cash flow, capitalization rate, NOI

JEL Classification: C12, C22, C23, C32, C41, C42, C52, C53