The Relevance of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Revisited
20 Pages Posted: 6 Feb 2007
Date Written: February 1, 2007
Abstract
This paper analyzes empirically the impact of fiscal policy on the price level for Germany and Spain. We investigate, whether the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) is able to deliver a reasonable explanation for the different evolutions of the price levels in these two countries during recent years. We apply a Bayesian VAR model with sign restrictions on the impulse responses to assess the relation between surpluses and public debt. The analysis basically evidences non-Ricardian equilibria in Spain, while the opposite is true for Germany. We interpret this as evidence for the inflation differences in these two countries being partially induced by fiscal policy shocks.
Keywords: Fiscal theory, policy interaction, monetary policy, public debt, price level, euro area
JEL Classification: E30, E31, E42, E62, E63
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