The Dynamics of International Trade Patterns

26 Pages Posted: 9 Feb 2007

See all articles by Paulo Bastos

Paulo Bastos

World Bank; Technical University of Lisbon (UTL) - Research Unit on Complexity and Economics (UECE); ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management,Universidade de Lisboa

Manuel Heredia Cabral

University of Minho

Abstract

This paper introduces new dynamic measures for examining changes in international trade patterns. Using data for 20 OECD countries over the 1980-2000 period, we show that inter-industry trade changes contrary to countries' previous specialisation are frequently the dominant form of trade expansion. The econometric analysis indicates that the observed changes in trade patterns were explained by initial endowments of human-capital and industry-specific changes in labour productivity and labour costs. The results also suggest that trade liberalisation induced an increase in the previous specialisation of larger OECD economies in industries with increasing returns to scale.

Keywords: Dynamics of international specialisation, trade liberalisation, technology transfers

JEL Classification: F12, L13, L14

Suggested Citation

Bastos, Paulo and Cabral, Manuel Heredia, The Dynamics of International Trade Patterns. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=962332 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.962332

Technical University of Lisbon (UTL) - Research Unit on Complexity and Economics (UECE) ( email )

Rua Miguel Lupi, 20
Lisboa, 1200-781
Portugal

ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management,Universidade de Lisboa ( email )

Rua do Quelhas 6
LISBOA, 1200-781
Portugal

Manuel Heredia Cabral

University of Minho ( email )

Braga, 4700
Portugal

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