Real-Time Forecasting of GDP Based on a Large Factor Model with Monthly and Quarterly Data
Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies No. 33/06
60 Pages Posted: 28 Feb 2007
There are 2 versions of this paper
Real-Time Forecasting of GDP Based on a Large Factor Model with Monthly and Quarterly Data
Real-Time Forecasting of GDP Based on a Large Factor Model with Monthly and Quarterly Data
Date Written: February 2007
Abstract
This paper discusses a factor model for estimating monthly GDP using a large number of monthly and quarterly time series in real-time. To take into account the different periodicities of the data and missing observations at the end of the sample, the factors are estimated by applying an EM algorithm combined with a principal components estimator. We discuss the in-sample properties of the estimator in real-time environments and methods for out-of-sample forecasting. As an empirical application, we estimate monthly German GDP in real-time, discuss the nowcast and forecast accuracy of the model and the role of revisions. Furthermore, we assess the contribution of timely monthly data to the forecast performance.
Keywords: Monthly GDP, EM algorithm, principal components, factor models
JEL Classification: E37, C53
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?
Recommended Papers
-
The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting
By Mario Forni, Marc Hallin, ...
-
Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets
-
By James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
-
Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment
By Ben S. Bernanke and Jean Boivin
-
Eurocoin: A Real Time Coincident Indicator of the Euro Area Business Cycle
By Filippo Altissimo, Antonio Bassanetti, ...
-
Are More Data Always Better for Factor Analysis?
By Jean Boivin and Serena Ng
-
Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis
By James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson
-
By Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin, ...
-
By Domenico Giannone, Lucrezia Reichlin, ...