The U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Balance: It's Size and Determinants

UC Davis Working Paper #98-09

Posted: 15 Jun 1998

See all articles by Robert C. Feenstra

Robert C. Feenstra

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Wen Hai

Peking University - School of Economics

Wing Thye Woo

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics

Shunli Yao

University of International Business and Economics

Date Written: May, 1998

Abstract

This paper aims to reduce the range within which the true U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit lies, and identify the determinants of the bilateral trade deficit. We take advantage of detailed Chinese Customs data at the commodity level. Our calculated U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit is $15 billion to $20 billion in 1994, and $16 billion to $22 billion in 1995, compared to the official range of $8 billion to $30 billion, and $9 billion to $34 billion, respectively. The widening of the U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit in recent years reflected various factors, including: (i) macroeconomic forces in the U.S. and China moving in opposite directions, causing their respective overall trade balance to move in opposite directions; and (ii) the accelerated relocation of production of U.S. imports from East Asia to China.

JEL Classification: F14

Suggested Citation

Feenstra, Robert C. and Hai, Wen and Woo, Wing Thye and Yao, Shunli, The U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Balance: It's Size and Determinants (May, 1998). UC Davis Working Paper #98-09, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=98368

Robert C. Feenstra (Contact Author)

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics ( email )

One Shields Drive
Davis, CA 95616-8578
United States
916-752-9240 (Phone)
916-752-9382 (Fax)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Wen Hai

Peking University - School of Economics ( email )

Beijing
China

Wing Thye Woo

University of California, Davis - Department of Economics ( email )

One Shields Drive
Davis, CA 95616-8578
United States
530-752-3035 (Phone)
530-752-9382 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.econ.ucdavis.edu/faculty/woo/woo.html

Shunli Yao

University of International Business and Economics ( email )

10 East Huixin Street
Chaoyang District
Beijing, 100029
China
+86 10 6449 3920 (Phone)
+86 10 6449 3920 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.iait.org.cn

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
1,216
PlumX Metrics