Expected Loss Balance of Probability Theorem

Posted: 13 Jun 2007 Last revised: 26 Jan 2011

See all articles by Rupert Macey-Dare

Rupert Macey-Dare

St Cross College - University of Oxford; Middle Temple; Minerva Chambers

Date Written: Summer 2007

Abstract

This paper shows how for every Contingent Loss whose associated probability fails the Balance of Probability test, there is a corresponding Expected Loss whose probability passes the Balance of Probability test and so constitutes a preferable head of damage for a civil claim. Recent English Mesothelioma and Asbestos-related judgements including Gregg v Scott 2005, Fairchild v Glenhaven 2002 and Barker v Corus 2006 are considered in the light of this theorem.

Keywords: Balance of Probability, Expected Loss, Standard of Proof, Negligence, Mesothelioma, Asbestos, Loss of Chance

JEL Classification: C12, C13, K13, K41

Suggested Citation

Macey-Dare, Rupert, Expected Loss Balance of Probability Theorem (Summer 2007). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=993398 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.993398

Rupert Macey-Dare (Contact Author)

St Cross College - University of Oxford ( email )

Saint Giles
Oxford
United Kingdom

Middle Temple ( email )

Middle Temple Lane
London, EC4Y 9AT
United Kingdom

Minerva Chambers ( email )

London
United Kingdom

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