Specification Curve: Descriptive and Inferential Statistics on All Reasonable Specifications

29 Pages Posted: 25 Nov 2015 Last revised: 7 Nov 2019

See all articles by Uri Simonsohn

Uri Simonsohn

ESADE Business School

Joseph P. Simmons

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School

Leif D. Nelson

University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business

Date Written: October 29, 2019

Abstract

Empirical results often hinge on data analytic decisions that are simultaneously defensible, arbitrary, and motivated. To mitigate this problem we introduce Specification-Curve Analysis, which consists of three steps: (i) identifying the set of theoretically justified, statistically valid, and non-redundant analytic specifications, (ii) displaying alternative results graphically, allowing the identification of decisions producing different results, and (iii) conducting statistical tests to determine whether as a whole results are inconsistent with the null hypothesis. We illustrate its use by applying it to three published findings. One proves robust, one weak, one not robust at all.

Keywords: Specification Curve; p-hacking

undefined

Suggested Citation

Simonsohn, Uri and Simmons, Joseph P. and Nelson, Leif D., Specification Curve: Descriptive and Inferential Statistics on All Reasonable Specifications (October 29, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2694998 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2694998

Uri Simonsohn (Contact Author)

ESADE Business School ( email )

Av. de Pedralbes, 60-62
Barcelona, 08034
Spain

Joseph P. Simmons

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School ( email )

3733 Spruce Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6374
United States

Leif D. Nelson

University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business ( email )

545 Student Services Building, #1900
2220 Piedmont Avenue
Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

0 References

0 Citations

    Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

    Paper statistics

    Downloads
    6,190
    Abstract Views
    22,989
    Rank
    2,663
    PlumX Metrics
    Plum Print visual indicator of research metrics
    • Citations
      • Citation Indexes: 117
      • Policy Citations: 5
    • Usage
      • Downloads: 10544
      • Abstract Views: 23163
    • Captures
      • Readers: 315
    • Mentions
      • Blog Mentions: 4
      • News Mentions: 1
    • Social Media
      • Shares, Likes & Comments: 35
    see details