The Future of Coal-Fired Power Generation in Southeast Asia

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Forthcoming

35 Pages Posted: 28 Jan 2020

See all articles by Richard Clark

Richard Clark

Columbia University, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Political Science, Department of Political Science

Noah Zucker

Princeton University

Johannes Urpelainen

Johns Hopkins SAIS

Date Written: October 1, 2019

Abstract

As both China and India are moving away from coal in the power sector, Southeast Asia has emerged as arguably the most important region for future growth in coal-fired power generation. Here we use data from the January 2017 edition of the Global Coal Plant Tracker to understand coal's fortunes in the region. More specifically, we manipulate three key policy levers -- attrition rate, capacity factor, and plant lifespan -- to provide a timely update on the future of coal in Southeast Asia. Using improved estimates of the attrition rate for planned power plants and capacity factors in different countries, we find that status-quo trends in Southeast Asian coal-fired power generation would significantly hamper the region's ability to contribute to global efforts to limit warming to 1.5 or 2.0 degrees Celsius in line with international agreements, namely the 2009 Copenhagen and 2016 Paris Agreements. Though meeting these targets may be possible if policymakers limit the entry into service of new coal power capacity and reduce use of existing units, qualitative evidence suggests that there may be a lack of political will to do so.

Keywords: Coal, Energy Policy, Fossil Fuels, Power Sector, Climate Change, Southeast Asia

Suggested Citation

Clark, Richard and Zucker, Noah and Urpelainen, Johannes, The Future of Coal-Fired Power Generation in Southeast Asia (October 1, 2019). Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3512399

Richard Clark

Columbia University, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, Department of Political Science, Department of Political Science ( email )

New York, NY
United States

Noah Zucker

Princeton University ( email )

Princeton University
Princeton, NJ 08544-1021
United States

Johannes Urpelainen (Contact Author)

Johns Hopkins SAIS ( email )

1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036-1984
United States

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