Behind Every Good Lie is a Grain of Truth: Deriving Identity-Based Demand for Disinformation in Moldova and Taiwan Using GIS Applications

Abstract

Using existing literature on demographic segmentation and communications theory, this paper proposes a framework using geographic information system (GIS) applications to identify areas where a constituencies’ willingness to exchange loyalty for disinformation is expected to be salient within the spatially bounded constraints of post-imperial polities. The model derives demand potential from the presence of conglomerate identity groups and vote preference for Russian and Chinese-backed candidates during contentious presidential elections periods. Whereas voting patterns provide tangible examples of committed action, various factors of identity converge in meaningful ways to capture a constituency’s willingness to consistently exchange loyalty for information that ignores facts and realities if ‘inconvenient’ truths threaten their identity or way of life. It is at the intersection of these dimensions that in-depth disinformation analysis and interventions are warranted.

Keywords: Disinformation, Taiwan, Moldova, China, Russia, Computational Propaganda, Influence Operations, Elections, Election Interference, GIS, geospatial analysis